UCI Biological Passport: A Nonstarter

Anne Gripper czarina of the International Cycling Union (UCI) doping prevention has announced that a UCI sanctioned biological passport system is ready to produce results. These results will be based on a collection of in-competition and out-of-competition test measures of athletes conducted to establish "normal" longitudinal parameters considered essential to athletic performance. The biological passport also is intended to pinpoint suspected anomalies that would suggest possible use of prohibited performance enhancing substances.

Anne Gripper explains that the International Cycling Union (UCI) has initiated a "no start rule" where riders may be excluded from competition for fifteen days if biological parameters appear suspect.

Gripper also stated that the biological passport data has been stored on a secure Internet based computer software program; the Anti-Doping Administration Management System (ADAMS).

The biological longitudinal data for riders will be analyzed by Bayesian Statistical Model. The Bayesian Statistical Model will assign a probability of doping by an athlete based on suspect biological parameters. This probability will then be studied by a panel of nine medical experts selected by the UCI. If the panel concludes that the biological anomalies are the probable result of prohibited substance abuse an Adverse Analytical Finding and possible suspension from professional cycling could result.

The UCI biological passport is a dangerous experiment and it is destined to fail. Anne Gripper admits that no action could possibly be taken against a rider unless a probability is 99.9% that a change in a biological parameter is a result of prohibited substance abuse. This probabilistic fantasy of 99.9% can not hold up in court without direct evidence of the suspected substance being present in an athlete, however. For example, CERA (Continuous Erythropoiesis Receptor Activator) provides "a potent and sustained stimulation of red blood cell formation with longer dosing intervals" according to ROCHE. CERA has a long plasma half-life and is expressed by identifiable precursors, markers, or metabolites. An exact and detectable chemical signature of CERA is available. Without an identified prohibited substance detected in blood or urine at the time that a suspicious parameter is correlated by a statistical model the "evidence" amounts to hypothetical bunk and useless speculation.

Speculation as to the cause of a change in a biological profile will never result in a suspension from a national cycling federation in the absence of evidence of a prohibited substance. This is a fallacy.

However, as is true in all cycling anti-doping cases, the International Cycling Union (UCI) or the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) could appeal a national federation decision to the Court of Arbitration of Sport (CAS). If successful, WADA, the UCI, and the CAS could lower the bar of what constitutes a doping offense. This would be a travesty. The standard for suspension of an athlete would be based on a probability based statistical model and speculation, not on concrete evidence, or on reasonable doubt, or even on comfortable satisfaction.

The UCI Biological Passport is a nonstarter. Protect the human rights of all athletes and end this madness now.